Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 23:31:00 10/18/2009
Filed Under: Inquirer Politics, Eleksyon 2010, Opinion surveys, Benigno Aquino III, Cory Aquino
The SWS survey said Noynoy Aquino got 60 percent of the votes, Manny Villar 37 percent, Erap 18 percent, Gilbert Teodoro 4 percent, and the rest insignificant percentages. That was the part where 1,800 respondents chose the three people they thought should succeed Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.In the part where the respondents chose only one candidate, Noynoy did even better. He got 51 percent against Villar’s 20 percent, Erap’s 11 percent, Chiz Escudero’s 8 percent. The gap between him and his nearest rival was even wider.
Still, why am I not surprised? Like I said, this is an Edsa masquerading as an election.
There’s no other way to explain it. Arroyo should thank her lucky stars Corazon Aquino, the woman she betrayed politically and personally, died with the elections close by. Had it happened earlier, and with her looking determined to keep power, I have little doubt it would have sparked Edsa III. The story was there, the script was there, the roles were there. Only the person to play the role of Good was not there. With Cory’s death, it was finally there too.
Look what happened immediately afterward. Coming home after a seeming triumph, having just dropped by on Obama, Arroyo met with a storm of protest fiercer than “Ondoy” and “Pepeng.” Not least for having indulged in a Bacchanalian feast at Le Cirque while her country reeled in hunger. Since then, no new perfidy of hers has gone unnoticed and unopposed. The sea change is obvious even to the blind.
The elections have become the channel for the new Edsa.
Noynoy’s ratings certainly cannot be explained by the Obama-like efficiency of his campaign. It’s a ragtag army of volunteers. In the first place, he got those numbers before he started campaigning—hell, even before he announced his presidential bid. The one who has an efficient campaign going is Manny Villar. It’s well-funded, well-staffed and well-oiled. I don’t know if it’s well-motivated, though Ninoy, or his face which adorns legal tender, has been known to motivate over and beyond the call of duty, or good taste.
I can only imagine Villar’s consternation. He has been preparing for this for years, and for a while ruled the surveys even with Ping Lacson’s exposés. Then from out of the blue comes a Noynoy who, like Ondoy, sweeps everything away. It’s enough to turn anybody religious, or contemplate Robert Burns’ famous aphorism about the best-laid plots of mice and men often going awry.
Will the numbers change with the entrance of new faces, like Erap and Chiz?
Nothing’s impossible in life, or the Philippines. But I doubt it. The reason for this is that Erap and Chiz were seen as “presidentiables” well before they threw their hat in the ring. If the explanation for their poor ratings is that they hadn’t yet announced their bid when the surveys were taken, how explain Noynoy zooming to the top before he too did?
Noynoy’s phenomenal showing—not even Erap got those numbers at the height of his popularity—must in fact suggest that the public is largely oblivious to the existence of the other candidates. Or the other candidates are merely lurking at the background of the stage, bathed in shadows. At the foreground, bathed in (spot)light, is Noynoy and Arroyo. The elections, in the public mind, are just a choice between them. Like I said before, in any honest contest, a janitor can beat Arroyo by a mile.
Those who say this is not an Obama vs. Bush (McCain) contest because Noynoy is pitted against other “presidentiables” and not just Arroyo, or her surrogate, overlook that simple but inescapable fact. As far as the public sees it, as borne out by the surveys, the others are just “extras,” or people doing cameo roles.
Will the smear job, or black prop, bring Noynoy down? Those things have been rife in the Internet of late. Again, nothing’s impossible in life, or the Philippines. But I doubt it too. In fact, I suspect they will boost Noynoy’s stock rather than lower it.
The references to the failings of the Cory government are double-edged. Those failings of course are many, as I pointed out the other day, and I myself have not forgotten about them. But the fact is that despite them Cory was still the best president this country ever had, a thing a grateful nation recognized with the outpouring of love it showered her when she was brought to her final resting place. Any reference to the Cory government will bring this out as well. You cannot dredge up the bad without dredging up the good. And the good outweighs the bad.
In the past, personal attacks on candidates have done their share of damage. I recall that the charge of wife-beating particularly bothered Raul Roco, a thing that refused go away notwithstanding its ridiculousness especially for those who knew the couple. Other people have felt the sting of malicious invention.
I don’t know that it will have much effect here though. Not least because there isn’t much to attack Noynoy personally with. But more than that, because this is not a normal election, this is a life-and-death, truth-and-lie, right-and-wrong struggle pitting Noynoy against GMA. The attacks can only be seen as emanating from Malacañang and/or its allies among the other candidates. Which can only make Noynoy a more sympathetic figure, the victim of the diabolical plots of diabolical people.
The numbers will hold, unless the Noynoy camp itself muddles the story line, or bungles it epically. Or turns its campaign into a bloody mess. Otherwise, the only obstacle to Noynoy becoming president is the Smartmatic machines decreeing otherwise. Which is the part where I see an Edsa masquerading as an election turning into an election not particularly masquerading as an Edsa.
You’re part of the cheating, heaven help you.
Source: http://opinion.inquirer.net/inquireropinion/columns/view/20091018-230799/Still-why-am-I-not-surprised
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