Noynoy’s rating dives in latest survey (From a high of 60 percent, it is now down to half or 30 percent.)

By Charlie V. Manalo
11/10/2009


While maintaining his lead over other presidential aspirants in the latest survey conducted by The Issues and Advocacy Center, Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino’s popularity is seen to be on the decline which the Center described as a “stationary dive.”

Using a sample size of 1,200 respondents distributed proportionately to the electoral base of registered voters in 2007 and with a margin of error of +/-2.8 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent, respondents were asked “Who would you vote for from among the list of 13 known presidential aspirants if elections were to be held today?”

Around 30 percent or 360 respondents said they will vote for Aquino while 23 percent or 276 respondents said they will go for Sen. Manny Villar.

Former President Erap Estrada who also recently declared he will run for president in 2010 with Makati Mayor Jojo Binay garnered 13 percent while Sen. Chiz Escudero who resigned from the National People’s Coalition (NPC) which has been his political party since 1998 registered 11 percent.

Despite the survey numbers, the center predicted a tight five cornered race in 2010, clarifying that while poll surveys may be a basis in the determination of preferences by voters in any electoral exercise, the actual condition prevailing on the ground during the final stages of the campaign and on election day will largely depend not only on perception but on the quality, viability and operability of the political organization that candidates to national positions have.

The survey firm claimed that national elections cannot be treated as a separate electoral exercise that is distinct from the local polls because the pursuit of the campaigns of national candidates are dependent on the caliber of the local organizations that they have organized which is why the elections even for national positions are also dependent on local influences. This is the key that can make or unmake the candidates running for national positions, Malay said.

“What good would perception be if you cannot even deliver those perceptions to the precinct level and or if these perceptions change beginning on the eve of the elections up to the close of the polling precincts. This is an age-old reality politicians have to live with,” said Ed Malay, the Center’s chief, added that this is the reason it is predicting an election environment that is different from the survey results. Factoring in the kind of political support that each of the presidential aspirants currently have and if the present level of political base that each one has will not change till election day, the prediction is that the polls will be hotly contested by Villar, Gibo Teodoro, Erap Estrada, Chiz Escudero and Noynoy Aquino in that order.

Malay, director of The Center, said the drop in the survey rating of Noynoy is understandable as the euphoria associated with the death and burial of the late President Cory Aquino has started to wear off.

There is also the possibility, he said, that the people especially in the areas that were inundated by Typhoons Ondoy, Pepeng and Santi expected the tandem of Noynoy and Mar Roxas to be more visible in the relief operations that followed.

“The intensive and sustained Radio/TV advertisements launched by Villar nationwide coupled with the relief operations that his corporate organization conducted in the areas hit by Ondoy and Pepeng also allowed Villar to keep Noynoy within sight,” said Malay.

Malay added that as the Philippines tries to survive during these crucial and trying times when the world economy on which the country is dependent on has yet to recover, the Filipino electorate even in the depressed areas are also beginning to look not only at the qualifications of the presidential aspirants but also on the experience and capability of each of the presidentiables to lead the country in 2010 and beyond.

Aquino also led the survey in the super regions: National Capital Region where he posted 35 percent, Luzon (29 percent), Visayas (22 percent) and Mindanao (33 percent).

Of particular interest, however, is the prominence in which Teodoro crashed into the recent survey of The Center. Teodoro in the 13-way sampling posted a respectable 8 percent for 6th place right behind the fast-slipping Vice President Noli de Castro (9 percent).

But Teodoro improved to 5th place with 11 percent in the 8-way race which is just a shade behind Estrada who was at 15 percent in the 8-way sampling.

In an eight-way race, Malay said Aquino also topped the survey sampling with 23 percent but is now closely followed by Villar with 20 percent.

“What may come as a surprise are the changes in the position of Erap Estrada (13 percent in the 13-way race) dropping to fourth at 15 percent and giving way to Chiz Escudero who posted 16 percent.

The other change was that of Vice President Noli de Castro who could only muster 8 percent for 6th place compared to his 5th place position (9 percent) in the 13-way race.

These changes, according to Malay, is brought about by the possibility that the Filipino electorate are beginning to think wisely with respect to their choices given the enormity and gravity of the series of calamities that hit the country and the uncharacteristic response the people saw from among the presidentiables who have presented themselves to the public.


Source: http://www.tribune.net.ph/headlines/20091110hed2.html