MANILA - An election lawyer sees another term extension scenario: President Arroyo will run for a congressional seat in Pampanga and sit as Speaker of the House of Representatives."Ang plano diyan kailangan may puwesto siya by the next term and tatakbo siya as speaker diyan. Kailangan may puwesto siya sa gobyerno, otherwise wala siyang gagawin kundi sagutin lahat ng mga ginawa niyang hindi tama sa panahon niya (The plan is for her to have a seat in the House of Representatives by the next term and she will run for speaker. She has to have a position in government; otherwise all she will do is defend herself from all the charges about all her wrongdoings during her administration)," lawyer Sixto Brillantes told ABS-CBN's morning show, "Umagang Kay Ganda," on Wednesday.
Brillantes Mrs. Arroyo will try to take the highest position in the House while waiting for the shift from presidential to parliamentary form of government. He said the scenario will happen only if Mrs. Arroyo's allies in the House and the Senate fail to push Charter change.
He said the House speakership is the next best plan for Mrs. Arroyo if she fails to immediately takeover as prime minister under a parliamentary government.
Rumors of Mrs. Arroyo running for congresswoman in the second district of Pampanga floated after her House allies forced the passage of House Resolution 1109, which calls for a constituent assembly (con-ass) to tackle proposed amendments to the Constitution. She has also been frequently visiting her home province.
Critics of the administration predict that congressmen allies of the President will break the anti-term extension covenants in the House resolution and inject proposals for the extension of terms of incumbent officials, including Mrs. Arroyo's term.
Candaba Mayor Jerry Pelayo, a close ally of Mrs. Arroyo in Pampanga province, said rumors about the President's plan to sit as congresswoman after her term are malicious speculations.
Pelayo, however, said if he and Mrs. Arroyo belong to the same district, he would convince the President to run for congresswoman because of her abilities as a leader and her track record as a public servant.
Term extension scenarios
Abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak compiled the term extension scenarios that have been floated since the approval of HR 1109.
Scenario 1: Shift to a parliamentary system
The House of Representatives will convene a constituent assembly and proceed to amend the Constitution without the Senate. They will approve a change in the form of government from presidential to parliamentary, and lift the restrictions on foreign capital enshrined in the charter. They will then ask the Commission on Elections to hold a plebiscite. A case will subsequently be filed before the Supreme Court.
The Supreme Court approves the actions taken by a Senate-less constituent assembly, the plebiscite proceeds, and the administration makes sure the amendments are ratified by the people. Instead of presidential elections, parliamentary elections will be held in 2010. President Arroyo runs for a parliamentary seat in Pampanga, wins, and is chosen as prime minister.
Scenario 2: Senators cooperate
The House of Representatives will convene a constituent assembly with some administration senators. Although the senators who will join the constituent assembly will not be enough to meet the three-fourths vote requirement in separate voting (18 senators), their presence will somehow “legitimize the process.”
The charter amendments approved by the constituent assembly are then subjected to a plebiscite. The Comelec and the Supreme Court go along with the actions taken by the constituent assembly.
Scenario 3: Martial Law
The House of Representatives convenes a constituent assembly without the participation of the Senate. There will be street actions, but violent incidents organized by elements against democracy take place. President Arroyo will then have a basis to declare martial law.
Commenting on scenario three, Soliman said this can happen if the protests are not organized. “It [martial law] will make us vulnerable to infiltration and manipulation. When we act, we must be organized,” she said.
Scenario 4: Shift after Elections
The House of Representatives convenes as a constituent assembly, a case is filed before the Supreme Court, but the process takes so long that it is overtaken by the 2010 elections. Charter change fails.
Nevertheless, Mrs. Arroyo runs for and wins a congressional seat in Pampanga. But as soon as the 15th Congress is convened in 2010, charter change is approved, and there is an immediate shift in the form of government from presidential to parliamentary.
Congresswoman Arroyo becomes Prime Minister. With a report from Carmela Fonbuena, abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak
as of 06/10/2009 7:25 PM
Source: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/06/10/09/speaker-arroyo-while-waiting-cha-cha
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