Survey captures mood for honest gov’t

October 16, 2009 01:28:00
Amando Doronila
Philippine Daily Inquirer


The Third Quarter Social Weather Stations Survey has proved to be a disappointment to certain presidential aspirants who hoped to regain the momentum they lost after the entry of Sen. Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III in the presidential race on Sept. 9, as Liberal Party candidate.

The survey, conducted on Sept. 18-21, in interviews with 1,800 adults nationwide, showed Aquino leading, with a 60 percent vote, a field of 11 aspirants. Aquino led the pack with a huge gap ahead of his closest rival, Sen. Manuel Villar, who polled 37 percent. Others among the first five were former President Joseph Estrada with 18 percent, Sen. Francis Escudero, 15 percent and Sen. Manuel Roxas II, 12 percent.

Roxas has withdrawn from the presidential race to make way for Aquino, and is now Aquino’s vice presidential candidate on the LP ticket. At the tail-end of the survey were Vice President Noli de Castro, 8 percent; Sen. Loren Legarda, 5 percent; Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, 4 percent; Sen. Panfilo Lacson, 2 percent; and Makati Mayor Jejomar Binay, MMDA Chair Bayani Fernando and Brother Eddie Villanueva, all with 1 percent each.

The survey indicated that the race has narrowed to the first five, all of whom are identified with the opposition, which has however remained fragmented despite efforts from some opposition leaders to forge a unified ticket. Opposition presidential aspirants appear to loath one another more intensely than they detest President Macapagal-Arroyo, who has declared that she is stepping down at end of her elected term in May.

Respondents were asked, “Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as president in the May 2010 election?” The respondents were not prompted or given a list of names to choose from.

The third-quarter survey followed the SWS survey on Sept. 5 and 6, in Metro Manila and the vote-rich provinces of Central Luzon and Southern Tagalog. In that survey, Aquino spurted ahead of the pack with 50 percent of the vote. He dislodged the former front-runner, Villar, who placed second with 14 percent. The Aquino surge, which came in the wake of the national outpouring of grief over the death of his mother, President Corazon Aquino, turned the ratings chart upside down and left the Villar camp and the rest in disarray.

Aquino’s name did not appear in the June 2009 survey where Villar polled 33 percent to lead the field. Estrada had 25 percent, Escudero, 20 percent and Roxas, 20 percent.

The Sept. 18-21 survey did not offer hope to those swept aside by the 50-percent spurt of Aquino in Metro Manila and Luzon. They thought Aquino’s bulge would burst and that they would catch up and reduce his gap. This did not happen in the Sept. 18-21 survey which, instead, suggested that it reflected a nationwide, rather than a Manila-Luzon reality.

Villar in the recent survey still remained a poor second; he gained a mere four points (37 percent from 33 percent). Estrada, who got 18 percent in September, lost seven points (down from 25 percent in June). Escudero polled 15 percent in September, down from 20 percent in June. Noli de Castro, who scored 8 percent in September, lost ground, from 19 percent in June.

Apparently disappointed with the late September survey, the Villar camp sought consolation in the fact that the campaign period was still young and there was still time to catch up. Adel Tamano, spokesperson of Villar’s Nacionalista Party, said that despite changes in the recent survey, the party remained confident of its chances in the May 2010 election. “This is part of the dynamics of a political campaign, and we expect more changes to happen in the run-up to the election,” Tamano said.

On the administration’s side, the survey showed improvement in the rating of Teodoro, who rose to 4 percent from 0.8 percent in the previous survey. Teodoro who is believed to be favored by President Arroyo as the majority coalition’s candidate has the advantage of having the administration’s political machinery behind him, but is at the same time hampered by his association with the immensely unpopular President. Aquino interpreted the survey as showing he was correct in what he vaguely called “waging the people’s campaign.” He said “at the end of the day … this is the expression of the people’s desire for change in our country. Our platform, our solution is commensurate to the problems our countrymen are facing.”

This stage of the campaign is not the time presidential candidates crystallize their platforms and policies. However, Aquino has been making the right noises about issues of transparent governance, honesty and a change of government to one which can be “trusted” by the people. His bland rhetoric has not captured the imagination of the public and has not sent the nation on fire, but the surveys have captured the mood of the public as receptive to calls for honest and trustworthy government. This message strikes resonance against the background of an exiting government plagued by scandals of corruption and abuse of power.

Aquino has provoked strong opinions about his leadership style and qualities. His political presence cannot be ignored. Either you like him or you dislike him. You can’t be neutral about him. His unspectacular performance, lack of executive experience and preparation for the presidency have come under fierce scrutiny and attack. But the surveys reflect a deep undercurrent of public support for him, his assets as well as shortcomings notwithstanding. The next surveys will reveal whether his momentum is a bubble. So far, they have shown his rating is made of hard stuff.


Source: http://politics.inquirer.net/view.php?db=1&article=20091016-230307