Shopping for Gibo’s runningmate

BY REGINA BENGCO


EVERY copy of the national budget tells you that the functions of the Vice President of the Philippines are basically ceremonial. But according to the Constitution, he could be given a concurrent Cabinet position depending on the President’s discretion.

Former President Joseph Estrada, in a magazine interview when he was still vice president, summed up the duties of the country’s second-highest official: gracing ribbon cuttings, attending ceremonies, standing in for the President when he is not available, and "hinihintay na mamatay ang Presidente (waiting for the President to die)."

The running joke is that the next highest official to the President is the Executive Secretary, who is given the monicker "Little President" because he wields great power over the executive department and can sign an order in behalf of the President.

But come election season, the vice presidential post gets elevated to much higher importance because a presidential aspirant without a runningmate is not considered a serious candidate.

Such is the predicament of the administration coalition: Finding a strong runningmate that would propel Defense Secretary Gilberto "Gibo" Teodoro, its standard bearer with only a 4 percent survey rating, to victory in the May 2010 elections.

Teodoro, in a recent ambush interview, said he will let the Lakas-Kampi-CMD officials pick his runningmate. "Kahit sino kaya ko namang kumbinsihin sa plataporma. Kahit sino kaya ko namang makasama. Hindi naman ako mahirap kausapin," he said.

He said his not having a runningmate yet does not mean Lakas-Kampi-CMD is having problems because he’s not the only presidential bet without a partner. The administration party is supposed to come up with its decision next week, during the meeting of its national executive committee.


LOSER

Ramon Casiple of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms (IPER) spelled out Teodoro’s problem: "Nobody wants to be paired with a loser."

"Mabigat iyan. Naaawa ako sa kanya. It’s not his fault. It’s just that he is identified with President Arroyo," he said.

Casiple said it would take a huge "incentive" for a politician to agree to be Teodoro’s runningmate when the alternative is winning with a stronger standard bearer.

"Malaki ang kailangan to convince somebody to pair with him...Let’s just say that the price is not yet right," he said.

He said it would take someone with tremendous capabilities to boost Teodoro’s chances against much popular candidates like Sen. Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III and Sen. Manuel Villar Jr., who got 60 and 37 percent, respectively, in the recent Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey.

"We have never had this kind of situation before," he said, adding that it is normally the presidential candidate who lifts his runningmate. He said Teodoro’s vice presidential bet might be the one to win instead of him.

Casiple said it would be a more intelligent choice for Sen. Loren Legarda, who is one of those being wooed by Lakas-Kampi-CMD to be Teodoro’s runningmate, to tandem with Villar, who has a bigger chance of winning, because it would serve her future political career better.

He said while the tag of being "elitist" could be cured with the right PR strategy during the campaign period, Teodoro’s and his prospective runningmate’s identification with Arroyo will drag them down. "Goodbye, career na iyan," he also said.

He predicted that the administration might just force someone to partner Teodoro. "If they get a runningmate, it will only be for formality na lang, just to fulfill the requirements," he added.


OVERSHADOWING GIBO

Ed Malay, Ramos’ publicist and director of the polling firm Center for Issues and Advocacy, said a popular runningmate might bring in the votes, but he or she might also overshadow Teodoro, who must be "projected on a level that should be slightly higher than the runningmate."

Malay said Teodoro must get a runningmate who shares his vision, complements his campaign platform, and has the political network to reap the votes for the administration team.

He advised the defense secretary to "move, move, move around" and introduce himself and his vision to the people.

Cabinet Secretary Silvestre Bello III, who is also Lakas-Kampi-CMD senior deputy secretary general, attributed the delay in getting a runningmate for Teodoro not to the lack of interested parties, but the party’s selection process.

"We have to be very democratic. The choice should be of the entire membership. There are actually many who are interested," Bello said.

He admitted that popularity accounts for up to 40 percent in the qualities of a prospective partner for Teodoro. He said the other attributes the party is looking for are good chemistry with the standard bearer, vision, loyalty to the party, geographical network, and capability to assume the presidency in case something happens to the elected president.

He said all is not yet lost for Teodoro because the political picture is not yet complete – what with Villar not having picked a runningmate and Sen. Francis Escudero not decided on whether to throw his hat into the presidential race.

He said Teodoro is "not a hard-sell" because he is already well known and has a good image and background.

He said once the deadline for the filing of certificates of candicacy is finished and the political landscape is clearer, "you will see the political machinery of Lakas-Kampi-CMD move."


CHOICES

Legarda, the lucky politician who is caught in the tug of war of the Villar and Teodoro camps, is popular, strong in surveys and has national support. Her environmental stance is gaining ground due to growing awareness on climate change issues.

She is dubbed as a political butterfly and Lakas’ "prodigal daughter," having won under the administration as a senator in 1998 and left to run as runningmate of the opposition’s Fernando Poe Jr. in 2004.

Observers noted that her character might be too strong, considering that Gloria Arroyo, herself, rejected her to be her vice president in 2001 and opted for the elderly statesman in Teofisto Guingona Jr., with whom Arroyo eventually had a falling out.

Actor and Sen. Ramon "Bong" Revilla Jr. has popularity, charisma, and national constituency. He has experience as governor of Cavite, but residents there did not reelect him due to dissatisfaction. His father, former senator Ramon "Agimat" Revilla Sr., is reportedly not in favor of him partnering with Teodoro due to fears of jeopardizing his political career.

Television host Edu Manzano is popular, being a former actor. His experience in government is limited to his stint as former Makati City vice mayor and chairman of the Optical Media Board. His following in terms of the national voting population has not been tested and he is listed as a senatorial candidate in the slate of former president Joseph Estrada. But from his earlier statements, it might be hard to convince him to join Teodoro.

Tourism Secretary Joseph Ace Durano is not as popular as the three others but has had national exposure, promoting the country’s tourist destinations. A native of Cebu, he could slice a significant chunk from the Visayas votes of Sen. Manuel Roxas II, another vice presidential contender. He is also a senatorial candidate of the Nationalist People’s Coalition.

Bello said the conflict with NPC members such as Legarda and Durano could be remedied by the alliance which the Lakas-Kampi-CMD is working out with the party.


HOW ABOUT GMA?

For administration ally Rep. Danny Suarez (Quezon), becoming Teodoro’s runningmate is the best and most logical step for President Arroyo to take.

Floating the idea of Arroyo gunning for the vice presidency instead of a congressional seat, Suarez said it would be a walk in park for the President, who ironically is accused of cheating her way to victory in the 2004 presidential elections.

"Panalo siya (if she runs for vice president)," he told a news forum in Quezon City. "Ang pinakamaganda diyan ay if you can convince her to run as vice president."

Suarez was the same congressman who had claimed to have paid more than a million pesos for an extravagant dinner at Bobby Van’s steakhouse in Washington last August, which was attended by President Arroyo and her entourage.

Suarez said while Arroyo cannot run for president because of a constitutional ban, she can still legally run for any lower position including vice president, senator, governor, mayor or a congressional representative.

"Looking at her graphic experience, if she will run in Congress she can be a good Speaker as well," he said.

Suarez, who is reportedly targeting the post of Speaker Prospero Nograles, admitted having discussed with the President her possible running for Congress a few months ago but said Arroyo had no reaction.


ASSET

The President is reportedly eyeing the first district of Pampanga which is represented by his son Rep. Juan Miguel Arroyo who is purportedly planning to run under party-list group Kasangga next year.

The party is currently represented by another Arroyo, presidential sister-in-law and Rep. Ma. Lourdes Arroyo.

Suarez said he believes Arroyo will win despite her sagging approval rating and the growing disapproval against her administration because of her experience in keeping the economy afloat.

"Let’s put it this way, you have a vice president that has an experience and the caliber like GMA, you will be an asset," he said.

The lawmaker said Arroyo’s only failure on pushing fiscal reforms was caused by Congress’ inaction in approving additional tax measures.

Suarez is a proponent of measures imposing additional taxes on text messaging and on tobacco and alcohol products.

"Even the ultra-oppositionist will agree that you cannot be that bad when you have continuous growth and when the IRA (internal revenue allotment) was practically doubled," he said. "If she is inefficient and corrupt, how can you practically double by one and a half or 150 percent the IRA?"


NOT FVR

Casiple said Teodoro cannot win just by relying on his party’s resources, citing the cases of Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr. in 1998 and Ramon Mitra Jr. in 1992. Both candidates had the backing of their party’s machinery but lost tremendously – De Venecia to Joseph Estrada and Mitra to Fidel Ramos.

He said Ramos, who won the 1992 elections with a minority vote of 23 percent, had a much popular president in Corazon Aquino to back him up. In Teodoro’s case, his benefactor, Arroyo, has a current net satisfaction rating of -38.

Ramos was also an EDSA Revolution hero and had more national exposure as defense secretary and chairman of the National Disaster Coordinating Council during the coup d’etats and the major calamities that devastated the Philippines during the Aquino administration.

However, Ramos and Teodoro both have on their side political strategist Ronaldo Puno, who has jurisdiction over the local government units and the PNP as interior secretary.

Puno headed the political propaganda machinery of Ramos, Estrada, and Arroyo. Recently, he reportedly quit his Lakas-Kampi position in order to be non-partisan.

Perhaps he also found Teodoro’s case too daunting for his genius? – With Wendell Vigilia and Victor Reyes


Source: http://www.malaya.com.ph/11062009/news/news3.html