Tuesday, December 29, 2009

48% of voters may still switch choices

by Pedro Laylo Jr.

Original Story: http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideNews.htm?f=2009/december/28/news2.isx&d=/2009/december/28

THE determinants of the votes for each presidential candidate remain unchanged since November 2009. The most often cited reason for voting for Aquino is still the legacy of his parents Cory and Ninoy and his perceived untainted image. Villar voters persist in their view that he can best help the poor and best advocate the welfare of Filpino workers abroad. Estrada’s believers cling to his pro-poor image. Teodoro voters resolutely see him as smart, intelligent and capable.

The first Laylo report in November 2009 noted that 44 percent of the votes were still up for grabs. This has increased to 48 percent, now that there is a definite list of candidates running for president. The percentage of voters for each candidate who will no longer change their minds about whom they will vote for in the 2010 elections was not markedly different from the November results. This is because the formal campaign period has not yet started.

Among the potential vote shifters, the front-runners are also the major beneficiaries of any shifts in voting choices. Among the potential Aquino vote shifters, 39 percent say Villar is their second choice. Conversely, among the Villar potential vote shifters, 41 percent say Aquino is their second choice.

For the Estrada, Teodoro and Delos Reyes vote shifters, their second choices are split between Aquino and Villar. For the Villanueva vote shifters, Aquino and Estrada stand to gain, while for the Madrigal vote shifters, Villar is their second choice.

It is noteworthy to mention also that there are almost the same percentages of core voters and potential vote shifters for the respective vice presidential partners of the presidential candidates.

The Standard Today Poll also tested the concept of same-ticket voting for president and vice president. When specifically asked about the importance of voting for a president and a vice president who come from the same party, a plurality of 45 percent say this is very important and a fourth say this is important, yielding a high total of 75 percent saying same-ticket voting is important.

Upon further analysis of the votes, the results show that there is a significant number of voters who indeed chose a president and a vice president coming from the same political party or group, and it even closely resembles the percentage of core supporters of presidential and vice presidential candidates.

The December 2009 Standard Today Poll also looked into what voters perceive as the most effective means for candidates running in national elections of reaching and convincing them.

About half of the voters find news about candidates aired on TV as well as TV commercials and advertisements as the means to help them decide whom to vote for.

About a third are influenced by stories of personal visits in their place of residence.

Participation in debates as well as news narratives in newspapers are appreciated by 28 percent of the voters.

A fifth base their vote decisions on radio commercials and radio news on specific candidates.

Sample ballots, billboards, posters, and personalized letters are the preferences of about 11 percent of the voters.

Comics and leaflets or brochures are helpful to 9 percent of the voters. Personal text messages account for only 5 percent while only 3 percent prefer Web sites and podcasts. Optical media is the choice of only 2 percent of the voters. About 2 percent admit they could be swayed to vote for a candidate if someone paid them to do so.

The results of the Standard Today Poll and The Laylo Report may be accessed in the Web at http://mstpoll.wordpress.com. Questions, comments may be sent via e-mail at mstpoll@gmail.com.

Original Story: http://www.manilastandardtoday.com/insideNews.htm?f=2009/december/28/news2.isx&d=/2009/december/28

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